From X to DOGE: Musk’s Twitter Playbook Meets Rick Sanchez-Style Chaos

Something DOGEd This Way Comes

Based on Elon Musk’s track record with Twitter (now X) and the parallels we’re seeing with his involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration, we can make some educated guesses about how DOGE might operate in its first 3 and 6 months and beyond. Musk’s approach to Twitter, mass layoffs, operational upheavals, impulsive decision-making, and a focus on reshaping the system to his vision, offers a blueprint for what could unfold with DOGE. Let’s break it down, keeping in mind the chaotic energy of that Rick and Morty episode ‘Something Ricked This Way Comes’ where Rick, upon discovering his granddaughter Summer working at a cursed pawn shop, launches into a competitive spiral against the literal devil — opening a counter-store that removes curses from items, only to abandon the whole venture once he proves his point and gets distracted by the next shiny challenge.

Twitter Takeover as a Template

When Musk took over Twitter in October 2022:

• Mass Firings: He slashed about 50% of the workforce (around 3,500 employees) within days, eventually cutting 80% (down to ~1,500) over the following months. Some were rehired when critical gaps emerged.
• Server Transfers: He physically moved servers (e.g., from Sacramento to Oregon) to cut costs, leading to outages and operational instability.
• Algorithm Tweaks: Musk meddled with Twitter’s algorithm — sometimes to boost his own tweets — prioritizing his whims over stability or user experience.
• Rebranding to X: The shift from Twitter to X reflected his obsession with a grand, unifying vision, even if it alienated users and advertisers.
• Outcome: X took a financial hit (ad revenue dropped over 45% in 2023), faced lawsuits over unpaid severance, and saw mixed recovery signs by 2025, though Musk’s personal wealth and influence grew.

This pattern suggests Musk thrives on bold, disruptive moves with little regard for process or collateral damage, often backtracking when reality bites. DOGE, with its mission to slash government spending and bureaucracy, could mirror this approach — only the stakes are higher, affecting millions of federal workers and the public at large.

Wubba Lubba DOGE-DOGE

DOGE’s First 3 Months

In its infancy, DOGE will likely move fast and break things, much like Musk did at Twitter:

• Mass Workforce Reduction Offers: The “Fork in the Road” email sent to federal employees in January 2025 — mirroring Musk’s Twitter ultimatum — offered buyouts to 2 million workers (8 months’ salary to resign by early February, later paused by legal challenges). By March, with court rulings allowing it to proceed, I’d expect 5–10% (100,000–200,000) to take the deal, short of the 75% cut Musk might dream of but still seismic. Agencies like the Department of Education and USAID could see targeted purges, especially where Musk sees “waste” (e.g., DEI roles or climate programs).
• Operational Chaos: Musk’s team, packed with loyalists from Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, might seize control of key systems — like Treasury payment platforms or GSA tech — bypassing career officials. Expect disruptions: delayed Social Security checks, halted aid programs, or frozen contracts as they “streamline” without fully grasping the consequences.
• Ideological Stamp: Musk and Trump will push to shutter entire agencies (e.g., USAID’s closure is already underway). The focus will be on symbolic wins — think cutting education research contracts or pausing environmental spending — over practical governance.
• Legal Pushback: Lawsuits from unions and Democrats will pile up, challenging DOGE’s authority and data access. Some actions (like Treasury interference) might get temporarily blocked, but Musk will likely barrel ahead where he can.

This phase will feel like Musk storming Twitter HQ with a sink — disruptive, theatrical, and messy. The Rick and Morty vibe fits: he’s smashing the “evil” bureaucracy, consequences be damned.

The Rick Sanchez Protocol

DOGE’s First 6 Months

By mid-2025, DOGE’s initial blitz will either gain traction or hit walls:

• Forced Layoffs Ramp Up: If voluntary buyouts fall short (say, only 75,000 resign vs. a 200,000+ goal), expect mandatory layoffs. Trump’s executive order for a 1:4 hiring ratio (one hire per four departures) and Musk’s push to “delete entire agencies” could axe 300,000–500,000 jobs by July — far from 75% of 2.3 million (1.7 million), but a huge dent. Agencies like the CFPB, SBA, and GSA are already sending termination notices to probationary staff.
• System Overhauls: Musk might demand tech upgrades or server consolidations (like Twitter’s data center fiasco), risking outages in critical services — imagine IRS delays or Veterans Affairs glitches. His team’s inexperience in public sector complexity could amplify downtime.
• Algorithmic Governance?: Musk might try injecting AI or efficiency metrics into agency operations, akin to Twitter’s algorithm tweaks, prioritizing cost over function. Picture automated budget cuts or performance rankings that ignore real-world impact.
• Public and Political Fallout: Chaos will spark backlash — think protests outside shuttered agencies or congressional hearings. If cuts hit national security (e.g., CIA buyouts) or popular programs, even some Trump allies might waver. Musk could double down, rehiring select staff (like at Twitter) when gaps cripple operations.

This period will test DOGE’s limits. The 75% employee cut rumor seems exaggerated — legal and practical barriers make it improbable — but 20–25% (500,000+) is plausible if unchecked. The 75% agency cut idea might mean eliminating smaller entities (not giants like Defense), though Musk’s rhetoric suggests ambition outstrips reality.

Beyond 6 Months

Longer-term, DOGE’s trajectory depends on resistance and Musk’s attention span:

• Stagnation or Pivot: If lawsuits or Congress curb DOGE’s power (e.g., upholding the Impoundment Control Act), Musk might lose interest — like Rick getting bored after wrecking the pawn shop. He could shift focus to his companies or crypto, leaving DOGE a shell. Alternatively, a Supreme Court green light could unleash deeper cuts, maybe 30–40% of staff (700,000–900,000) over years.
• Rebuilding (Sort Of): Like X rehiring staff and regaining advertisers, DOGE might backtrack on essential roles — rehiring IT workers or aid coordinators after public outcry. But the damage (closed agencies, lost expertise) could take decades to fix.
• Legacy of Disruption: Even if Musk exits, DOGE’s early moves will shrink government capacity. The 75% cuts (staff or agencies) won’t fully materialize — federal protections and sheer scale dwarf Twitter — but a leaner, Musk-ified bureaucracy could persist, prioritizing loyalty over competence.

Let’s dive into what Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and the Trump administration might intend to do with the savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and what their broader “grand plan” could be.

What’s Happening with the Money Saved?

As of February, 2025, DOGE’s stated mission is to cut $2 trillion annually from federal spending, targeting waste, fraud, and inefficiency. Musk and Ramaswamy have bragged about early wins — like $55 billion allegedly saved from fraud detection — though these numbers are murky and unverified. Trump’s latest pitch, floated at the FII Priority Summit on February 19, is to allocate 20% of DOGE’s savings as “DOGE Dividends” (around $5,000 per tax-paying household, per James Fishback’s proposal) and another 20% to pay down the $35.5 trillion national debt. The remaining 60%? That’s less clear, but clues point to tax cuts, deregulation, and shifting spending priorities.

• Stimulus Checks (DOGE Dividends): You’re right to flag this as a populist move. Sending cash directly to Americans — especially after the 2021 checks faded from memory — could be a slick way to win hearts, dominate headlines, and frame DOGE as a taxpayer victory. Fishback argues it’s not inflationary because it’s funded by savings, not deficit spending, and targets savers (taxpayers) rather than spenders. But economists like Lance Roberts warn even this could nudge inflation up, especially if consumer confidence spikes and spending follows. Post-COVID checks added 2–3 points to inflation in 2021–2022; a smaller, targeted payout might not hit that hard, but with inflation at 3% now, the Fed’s 2% target could still slip further away.
• Debt Reduction: The 20% debt paydown sounds noble — $400 billion annually if they hit $2 trillion in cuts — but it’s a drop in the bucket against $35.5 trillion. It’s also at odds with Trump’s tax cut obsession, which historically balloons deficits (the 2017 TCJA added $1.9 trillion over a decade). Paying down debt could ease long-term inflation pressure by reducing borrowing costs, but it’s a slow burn, not a flashy win.
• The Rest (60%): Here’s where the grand plan might hide. Trump’s team hints at making his 2017 tax cuts permanent (expiring in 2025) and slashing corporate rates further. Musk loves deregulation — think energy production (drill, baby, drill) and gutting red tape for businesses. Ramaswamy’s pushed for axing agencies outright, like Education and the CFPB. That leftover $1.2 trillion could fuel these priorities, shifting resources from “bureaucratic bloat” to private-sector growth — or so the narrative goes.

The War Spending Angle

Trump’s been vocal about ending the Ukraine conflict fast — think “Day One” promises — and Musk’s echoed this, criticizing Biden’s “forever war” funding ($175 billion since 2022). DOGE’s lens could reframe military aid as “wasteful,” especially if Trump negotiates a Putin deal (as CNN speculated on February 20). Savings here — say, $50–100 billion annually — could redirect to domestic wins or debt optics.

• Short-Term: Expect a freeze or sharp cut in Ukraine aid by mid-2025, sold as “peace through efficiency”. Ramaswamy’s already flagged overseas spending as a DOGE target.
• Long-Term: A leaner Pentagon budget, but not too lean — Trump loves a strong military. Savings might shift to border security (mass deportation costs) or pet projects like Space Force.

This ties to narrative control: “We’re not wasting your money on foreign wars” pairs nicely with “Here’s your dividend check.” It’s a one-two punch to sidestep Biden-era critiques of reckless spending.

Populism Meets Power

So, what’s the bigger game? Musk and Trump aren’t subtle — they thrive on disruption and spectacle. Here’s a stab at the grand plan, blending their moves into a cohesive (if chaotic) vision:

1. Populist Buy-In: The dividends are an incentive to get Americans cheering for cuts. If taxpayers see cash, they might stomach layoffs (500,000+ jobs targeted) and agency closures. It’s a media coup: “Musk saves trillions, gives it back!” drowns out union protests or service disruptions.
2. Economic Rewiring: Slash government, juice the private sector. Permanent tax cuts and deregulation aim to turbocharge growth — Musk’s “unshackle the economy” mantra. Inflation’s a risk, but they’re betting on energy production (lower gas prices) and efficiency gains to offset it. If GDP jumps, they’ll claim victory, even if deficits creep up.
3. Narrative Dominance: Control the story — X is Musk’s megaphone. War spending cuts sell “America First,” dividends sell “taxpayer justice,” and debt talk appeases fiscal hawks. It’s damage control for past excess (Twitter’s mess, COVID checks) repackaged as bold reform.
4. Long-Term Power: A smaller, loyalist government cements Trump’s grip. DOGE’s temp status (expires 2027) could morph into a permanent fixture if it delivers. Musk’s influence grows — maybe he’s the real “Commander-in-Chief” here, as he coyly tweeted.

Risks and Reality Checks

• Inflation Boomerang: Long-term dividends could indeed reignite prices, especially if cuts disrupt supply (e.g., firing IRS staff hikes deficits indirectly). The Fed’s rate cuts might stall, spooking markets.
• Legal Walls: Unions and Congress are already suing — DOGE’s overreach (Treasury data grabs, mass buyouts) could stall in courts by summer 2025.
• Musk’s Attention Span: Like Twitter, he might tire of DOGE if it’s not fun — or profitable. Boredom could derail the grandiosity.

The Promise: AI Replaces Workers?!

Imagine Musk pitching this at a Mar-a-Lago huddle in late 2024: “Give me six months, Don — we’ll slash 500,000 jobs and my xAI bots will handle the rest. Treasury clerks? AI. IRS auditors? AI. No more human inefficiency!” Trump, dazzled by the sci-fi sheen and cost-cutting allure, greenlights it. The $2 trillion savings target hinges partly on this — say, 10–20% (200,000–400,000 workers) — with AI supposedly stepping in to keep services humming. It’s sold as revolutionary: “Musk’s machines save taxpayers billions!” X lights up with the hype.

The tech? Likely xAI’s latest, maybe an amped-up Grok variant, trained to process forms, flag fraud, or manage databases — tasks now handled by federal grunts. Musk might even throw in Tesla-inspired automation for physical jobs (mail sorting, anyone?). The admin buys in, expecting a lean, futuristic government by mid-2025.

Short-Term Failure of the AI Goals

Here’s where it crashes. AI’s not ready — neither is the government — and the fallout’s messy:

• Tech Gaps: Current AI, even xAI’s best, struggles with the nuanced, context-heavy work of federal agencies. Processing Social Security claims isn’t just data entry — it’s legal interpretation, edge cases, and human judgment. IRS audits need reasoning beyond pattern recognition. A 2024 GAO report pegged AI adoption in government as “nascent” — only 20% of agencies use it meaningfully, mostly for basic analytics. Musk’s promise assumes a leap we haven’t made yet.
• Infrastructure Mess: Federal IT is a dinosaur — legacy systems from the 1980s, incompatible databases, no cloud backbone. Rolling out AI at scale means overhauling this junk, which takes years, not months. Twitter’s server moves caused outages with far less complexity; imagine VA benefits crashing when AI chokes on COBOL code.
• Training Flop: AI needs data — clean, massive, recent data. Federal records are a swamp of paper files, PDFs, and siloed archives. Training a bot to replace 200,000 workers by July 2025? Unrealistic. xAI’s team might scramble, but they’d hit walls — think weeks of downtime as bots misfire, rejecting valid claims or paying out fraud.
• Human Backlash: Fired workers don’t vanish quietly. Unions sue, alleging illegal terminations (5 U.S.C. § 7513 protects feds from arbitrary cuts). Congress freaks — especially if constituents flood offices with horror stories: “AI lost my disability check!” Trump’s base might cheer initially, but even they’ll sour if services tank.
• Savings Stall: Without AI, DOGE’s cuts don’t stick. Say 100,000 workers take buyouts, but the other 100,000–300,000 AI was meant to replace stay put — or get rehired when chaos erupts (echoes of Twitter’s rehiring spree). That $200-$400 billion in payroll savings evaporates, leaving the $2 trillion target a fantasy. No savings, no dividends, no debt paydown.

Ripple Effects on the Grand Plan

This short-term flop dents the whole operation:

• Populist Promise Breaks: Those $5,000 “DOGE Dividends” vanish without savings. Trump’s stuck explaining why checks aren’t in the mail — narrative control slips as X fills with “Where’s my money?” posts. The media spins it as incompetence, not innovation.
• Inflation Dodged, But at a Cost: No stimulus means no immediate inflation spike — good news for the Fed. But the flip side is economic stagnation if cuts gut services (e.g., delayed contracts stall small businesses). Musk’s “unshackle the economy” pitch looks hollow.
• War Spending lifeline: With AI failing, DOGE might lean harder on cutting Ukraine aid or overseas bases to scrape savings — maybe $50 billion. It’s a quick win, but it won’t cover the gap. Trump doubles down on “America First,” but global allies fume.
• Musk’s Credibility: Trump might sour on Musk if AI’s a bust. “Elon said it’d work!” becomes a private gripe. Musk could deflect — blaming bureaucrats or “deep state” sabotage — but his DOGE clout wanes. Ramaswamy might pivot to manual cuts, sidelining the tech angle.

The Rick and Morty vibe peaks here: Musk’s AI gambit is Rick’s half-baked gizmo — brilliant in theory, disastrous in practice. The admin’s left holding the bag, scrambling for damage control.

Long-Term: AI Catches Up (2026 and Beyond)

AI transition will eventually happen, By 2027 or later, the kinks could iron out:

• Tech Matures: xAI or rivals crack the code — think Grok 5.0, handling complex workflows with 90% accuracy. Federal IT gets a slow, costly upgrade (maybe $50 billion over a decade), enabling AI to take over rote tasks: 80% of GSA procurement, 60% of IRS collections.
• Scaled Replacement: Post-2025 failures teach lessons. DOGE 2.0 (if it survives) targets 300,000–500,000 jobs again, but smarter — phased rollouts, human oversight. Savings creep toward $500 billion annually by 2030, not $2 trillion, but real.
• New Normal: Government shrinks, but not Musk’s way. AI handles back-office grunt work; humans stay for policy and exceptions. Trump’s legacy (or his successor’s) might still claim victory: “We modernized!”
• Economic Shift: Long-term, AI cuts labor costs but risks unemployment spikes — 5–10% of federal-adjacent jobs (contractors, support roles) could vanish. Tax cuts might offset this, but inequality grows. Inflation’s tame if savings fund growth, not handouts.

What If It Fails Short-Term?

If Musk’s AI promise flops by July 2025, the admin pivots:

• Plan B: Slash harder manually — more buyouts, agency closures. Less flashy, more legal fights, slower savings.
• Blame Game: Musk points at “obsolete systems”; Trump at “lazy feds.” X becomes a battleground to spin the failure.
• Grand Plan Delayed: Dividends wait, debt grows, tax cuts shrink. The vision of a lean, Musk-ified government stumbles — maybe limps to 2028.

Musk might still win long-term — AI’s trajectory is upward — but a short-term bust could bruise his DOGE stint. Trump’s patience and the public’s tolerance are the wild cards. What do you think — does Musk double down on AI after a flop, or does he bail like Rick ditching a failed experiment?